26 January 2005
Economic Judgment Day
There was an interesting article in the New York Times about the resurgence of Europe (yes, mostly Rummie's despised "old" Europe) and the rise of China over the next decade.
With a budget deficit running out of control funded by Japanese and Chinese savings, personal indebtedness at an all time high, and a distinct shift away from a US dollar denominated reserves to Euro based reserves, Pax Americana is experiencing the sort of imperial over-reach Yale historian, Paul Kennedy, discussed in his 1987 book, "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers."
As the neo-cons keep running up the tab with more wars like their ill-fated Iraqi Misadventure, it simply accelerates the pace at which Pax Americana disperses its economic and military power. At worst, her bankers could well decide to stop throwing good money after bad. So as the neo-cons continue to piss away goodwill built over generations with "old" Europe and "new" China, maybe the latter parties will have the last laugh when they pull the economic rug out from under Pax Americana.
Which brings me to my final point. I used to think the incredible shrinking Coalition of the Willing should get out of Iraq as soon as possible. But with Bush's re-election, I now think the opposite. Were the US to depart now, Bush would probably escape the dire economic consequences of his foolish misadventures, leaving his hapless successors to carry the can.
On the other hand, were the US to continue wasting blood and treasure in Iraq, then there is a chance this would hasten economic judgment day. With luck, it would occur during his remaining time in office. Sadly, this may be the only way for his supporters to learn a hard lesson of cause and effect; which would otherwise be lost on them, if economic judgment day was delayed.
With a budget deficit running out of control funded by Japanese and Chinese savings, personal indebtedness at an all time high, and a distinct shift away from a US dollar denominated reserves to Euro based reserves, Pax Americana is experiencing the sort of imperial over-reach Yale historian, Paul Kennedy, discussed in his 1987 book, "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers."
As the neo-cons keep running up the tab with more wars like their ill-fated Iraqi Misadventure, it simply accelerates the pace at which Pax Americana disperses its economic and military power. At worst, her bankers could well decide to stop throwing good money after bad. So as the neo-cons continue to piss away goodwill built over generations with "old" Europe and "new" China, maybe the latter parties will have the last laugh when they pull the economic rug out from under Pax Americana.
Which brings me to my final point. I used to think the incredible shrinking Coalition of the Willing should get out of Iraq as soon as possible. But with Bush's re-election, I now think the opposite. Were the US to depart now, Bush would probably escape the dire economic consequences of his foolish misadventures, leaving his hapless successors to carry the can.
On the other hand, were the US to continue wasting blood and treasure in Iraq, then there is a chance this would hasten economic judgment day. With luck, it would occur during his remaining time in office. Sadly, this may be the only way for his supporters to learn a hard lesson of cause and effect; which would otherwise be lost on them, if economic judgment day was delayed.
